Party Vs. Country? — Midweek note
If the Tory leadership contest has shown us anything then it is that it is impossible to win both the party and the country over with one set of pledges.
You have two types of candidate here, one with a manifesto to win over the party members, who ultimately matter most in this contest, and another type of candidate who has a manifesto to win over the wider national electorate.
Take for example Boris Johnson, his pledge to raise the 40% income tax rate threshold to £80,000 are designed to win over the traditionally wealthier members of the Conservative party (as are the other tax cut pledges by the other candidates). This strategy is likely to gain him supporters within the party, but how likely is it to win a future general election.
At a time when the country wants austerity to end, tax cuts before spending pledges is not likely to appeal to the masses.
What about the opposite candidate, Matt Hancock for example? On his website (letsmoveforward.co.uk) he says amongst other things:
We need great public services that are always there for working people: affordable childcare, more police, a well-funded tech-driven NHS, a Long-Term Plan for education so our kids have the chance to thrive in the workforce of tomorrow.
This fluffy waffle is going to be far more appealing to the median voter in a general election (which will happen at some point in the coming years, like it or not).
So what do you do?
No one wants to make promises that then make you unpopular or are completely undeliverable. On the other hand you can’t do anything if your campaign is so weak that you lose.
In many ways this conundrum is as of a result of the policy making process of the Conservative Party.
Every other party (except the Brexit Party which only has one policy) make their policy decisions at party conference. This means its almost impossible for these party leaders to make commitments on party policy without their member’s approval.
This is why the Lib Dem leadership elections have a distinct lack of policy (I appreciate that neither would become PM with the ability to introduce policy as soon as elected).
The best way to win is to be as vague on policy as possible (impossible to be called out on policy if you haven’t got one) and hard on Brexit (appeals to membership).
No matter who wins, we all lose.
