What next for Brexit? — Monday note.
Last week was quite extraordinary. It began with Theresa May pulling the crucial vote on her deal, hours after her ministers had been around the media stations to reassure that the vote was going ahead. She then took to her feet in the commons to make a statement that she intended to renegotiate with the European union and bring the vote back another time, much to the distaste of the majority of MPs. The distaste was so great that her own MPs began a vote of no confidence procedure, which she came through rather damaged.
The real question left now is, what next for Brexit? Mrs May finds herself in between a rock and a hard place, between her backbenchers and the EU. The dynamics of the situation has significantly changed by her seeing down the European Research Group (ERG) in the vote of no confidence, not necessarily putting her in at an advantage, nor a disadvantage. As I see it there are a few ways out of here.
She could fudge a ‘legal clarification’ with the EU on the backstop or achieve a way for the UK to unilaterally withdraw from the arrangement should it wish. However the EU have made it clear that it is not willing to reopen the negotiations and there would have to be an additional backstop to the backstop to facilitate a unilateral withdrawal from the backstop. In reality she could achieve some clarification but it is unlikely to pacify her critics in Westminster.
Labours six tests, if met, should in theory win the support of Labour parliamentarians. Of course this comes with the caveat that the politics of the situation that mean Labour will vote against anything that comes their way, such is the beauty of a test you can’t measure empirically. But by softening her position and renegotiating a ‘Norway’ style deal she might have the parliamentary support to get it through. Although this may mean that more backbenchers on her side of the house cannot support the deal, it is becoming clearer that more prominent members of the cabinet are getting behind a softer plan b.
There is nothing stronger than a Tory politician’s self-preservation instincts. But Brexit could be the catalyst that begins to break down the big tent which has endured decades of bust ups and catfights over Europe. The referendum called to end the dispute once and for all by Mr Cameron launched a party within a party; the ERG. This group of oddballs, led by Mr Rees-Mogg will be satisfied with nothing the Prime Minister returns with from Europe. And since they’ve blown their shot rather prematurely, they face a year trying to take her down with the only official process unavailable.
So could this party within a party breakaway? There might well be the leader in place for it already; Nigel Farage. King of the fruitcakes recently left his old UKIP because it had become too racist and focused on Islam. It’s highly likely that one of politics’ vainest men will be launching a new party which could drag away the highest profile anti-May MPs from the Conservative party.
We saw this happen in 2014 when it gained two defectors from the Tories. At the time Europe or Brexit wasn’t really at the forefront of the minds of voters, it gathered a lot of the votes on the back of the popularity of Mr Farage so this time round would things be different? Well for the defectors they would have to be sure that their reputation as an MP is greater than their party’s popularity. At one point, they will face the electorate again, they would have to be sure that their popularity would see them beat a rival Tory candidate.
In 2015, we saw that this wasn’t necessarily the case. Farage didn’t win in Thanet and Mark Reckless lost his seat to the Tories. I think this is why this scenario is unlikely to materialise, it’s too much of a risk for them to lose their seats and they love the fame it affords them.
If she can’t pass the Withdrawal Bill in Parliament but continues to want to push through her deal, then the ideal way is to call a referendum. In the past she’s ruled it out several times, and is expected to rule it out once again today, but she is not known for her inability to u-turn so don’t dismiss the possibility of it taking place. If she wants to win, the optimal question to ask would be something along the lines of ‘Mays deal v No deal’. Parliament would have to pass legislation to allow a new referendum to take place and if the government presented a bill with this question, it’d likely be voted down or passed with an amendment calling for a remain option, such is the strength of the people’s vote grouping in parliament. So, what for the three-way referendum? In a three-way referendum, the leave vote would be split between the deal and no deal options and remain would probably win comfortably, even if it didn’t win 50% of the vote.
Mrs May, someone with an instinct for self preservation greater than a cockroach during a nuclear blast, would know this would be the end of the road for her tenure as PM. Which brings us to the most likely referendum question: ‘Remain v May deal’. This would be the closest battle, with remain the favourite, but by no means an unassailable position as shown in 2016.
Across the chamber Jeremy Corbyn will continue his push for a general election. Mrs May will not be keen on this option. Firstly because she said she wouldn’t lead her party into the next election, and secondly because it would be difficult for her party to unite around a Brexit position. It would also require the Labour Party to have a position on Brexit deeper than ‘we would be nice to the EU and get pigs to fly’, not something that is likely to go down too well in Brussels.
Thanks for reading, have a good week.
Matt
p.s. all feedback is greatly appreciated
